Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (66%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
ACF Fiorentina leading at halftime?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 35¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$6.4K
$634.3
Research grade
NeutralYes at 35%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors No 66%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 36.4¢ | $3.3K | $4.5K | +$1.1K | 25% 91-278 (369) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 64.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.4K | -$363.67 | 49% 12355-12648 (25003) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 64¢ | $480.07 | $382.53 | -$97.54 | 50% 24646-24318 (48964) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 64¢ | $239.99 | $183.03 | -$46.36 | 58% 41146-29827 (70973) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $11.05 | $8.67 | -$2.38 | 59% 45019-31414 (76433) |
Invested
$3,306
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
25%
91-278 (369)
Invested
$1,780.97
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$363.67
Record
49%
12355-12648 (25003)
Invested
$480.07
Value
$382.53
PnL
-$97.54
Record
50%
24646-24318 (48964)
VeryLucky888Invested
$239.99
Value
$183.03
PnL
-$46.36
Record
58%
41146-29827 (70973)
Invested
$11.05
Value
$8.67
PnL
-$2.38
Record
59%
45019-31414 (76433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.