Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-10-29?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 60¢ · $575 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$574.83
$1.98
58.7¢ → 59.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 59¢ | $352.23 | $355.22 | +$2.98 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
28 2829<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $74.23 | $74.23 | -$0 | 46% 411-485 (896) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $67.19 | $66.37 | -$0.82 | 65% 1692-913 (2605) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $40.52 | $39.58 | -$0.94 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $20.75 | $20.93 | +$0.18 | 56% 2787-2207 (4994) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $15.45 | $15.92 | +$0.61 | 53% 15855-14038 (29893) |
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388CTR<$100 | Yesavg 41¢ | $2.62 | $2.59 | -$0.03 | 55% 1708-1409 (3117) |
Invested
$352.23
Value
$355.22
PnL
+$2.98
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$74.23
Value
$74.23
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
411-485 (896)
Invested
$67.19
Value
$66.37
PnL
-$0.82
Record
65%
1692-913 (2605)
Invested
$40.52
Value
$39.58
PnL
-$0.94
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$20.75
Value
$20.93
PnL
+$0.18
Record
56%
2787-2207 (4994)
Invested
$15.45
Value
$15.92
PnL
+$0.61
Record
53%
15855-14038 (29893)
Invested
$2.62
Value
$2.59
PnL
-$0.03
Record
55%
1708-1409 (3117)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.