Exact Score: ACF Fiorentina 3 - 1 Atalanta BC?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 82¢ · $728 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$727.77
-$347.56
94.8¢ → 81.8¢
-14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95¢ | $704.14 | $466.96 | -$237.18 | 50% 33084-32648 (65732) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 94¢ | $262.89 | $167.14 | -$82.1 | 58% 41266-29916 (71182) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $95 | $63 | -$32 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.8¢ | $26.75 | $28.83 | +$2.07 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $0.2 | $1.85 | +$1.65 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
Invested
$704.14
Value
$466.96
PnL
-$237.18
Record
50%
33084-32648 (65732)
VeryLucky888Invested
$262.89
Value
$167.14
PnL
-$82.1
Record
58%
41266-29916 (71182)
Invested
$95
Value
$63
PnL
-$32
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$26.75
Value
$28.83
PnL
+$2.07
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$1.65
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.