Exact Score: ACF Fiorentina 2 - 1 Atalanta BC?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 60¢ · $424 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 57%
$424.33
-$31.52
89.9¢ → 60¢
-33% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $155.55 | $158.33 | +$2.78 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 91¢ | $175.43 | $121.45 | -$53.98 | 50% 33084-32648 (65732) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $14.35 | $58.99 | +$44.64 | 49% 18854-19262 (38116) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 91¢ | $77.35 | $53.55 | -$23.8 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15.23 | $16.14 | +$0.91 | 59% 9718-6703 (16421) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $17.1 | $11.97 | -$5.13 | 58% 41266-29916 (71182) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.84 | $3.89 | +$3.05 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
RN1CTRInvested
$155.55
Value
$158.33
PnL
+$2.78
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Invested
$175.43
Value
$121.45
PnL
-$53.98
Record
50%
33084-32648 (65732)
Invested
$14.35
Value
$58.99
PnL
+$44.64
Record
49%
18854-19262 (38116)
Invested
$77.35
Value
$53.55
PnL
-$23.8
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
poshposh<$100Invested
$15.23
Value
$16.14
PnL
+$0.91
Record
59%
9718-6703 (16421)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$17.1
Value
$11.97
PnL
-$5.13
Record
58%
41266-29916 (71182)
Invested
$0.84
Value
$3.89
PnL
+$3.05
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.