Exact Score: ACF Fiorentina 0 - 0 Atalanta BC?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $303 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$303.25
-$137.54
94.8¢ → 100¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 94.1¢ | $280.05 | $185.94 | -$94.11 | 50% 33084-32648 (65732) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $71.28 | $46.41 | -$24.87 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $68.92 | $44.64 | -$24.28 | 76% 3978-1256 (5234) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.46 | $13.69 | +$12.23 | 57% 13381-10228 (23609) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $19 | $12.5 | -$6.5 | 58% 41266-29916 (71182) |
Invested
$280.05
Value
$185.94
PnL
-$94.11
Record
50%
33084-32648 (65732)
Invested
$71.28
Value
$46.41
PnL
-$24.87
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
Invested
$68.92
Value
$44.64
PnL
-$24.28
Record
76%
3978-1256 (5234)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$13.69
PnL
+$12.23
Record
57%
13381-10228 (23609)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$19
Value
$12.5
PnL
-$6.5
Record
58%
41266-29916 (71182)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.