Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw?

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 81¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 29

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.2K

Combined PnL

$35.07

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 81¢

+3% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares10,857

Combined PnL-$303.66

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,049

Combined PnL+$338.73

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN Anon455	Noavg 78.9¢	$8.0K	$7.7K	-$316.73	56% 2788-2211 (4999)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 68.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$37.21	57% 1660-1239 (2899)
└ No leg	Noavg 68.4¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$158.24
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 25.7¢	$736.5	$615.46	-$121.04
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Yesavg 26.1¢	$714.68	$1.1K	+$340.6	49% 671-693 (1364)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 75.7¢	$439.86	$432.91	-$6.95	53% 2127-1893 (4020)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 75¢	$384.84	$382.27	-$2.57	49% 18854-19262 (38116)
TO torta.tech	Noavg 77¢	$335.72	$342.26	+$6.54	63% 8086-4818 (12904)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 73.5¢	$232.57	$245.77	+$13.2	52% 13670-12491 (26161)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.2¢	$84.87	$82.8	-$2.07	50% 24706-24393 (49099)
RN1<$100	Noavg 74.9¢	$39.34	$41.74	+$2.4	54% 56053-48184 (104237)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 72¢	$37.74	$37.38	-$0.36	52% 3741-3403 (7144)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 74¢	$14.8	$15.9	+$1.1	54% 6145-5212 (11357)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$13.83	$1.7	+$0.2	58% 41266-29916 (71182)
0010001000001100<$100	Noavg 76¢	$1.52	$1.23	-$0.29	65% 1353-725 (2078)

Anon455

Invested

$8,028.31

Value

$7.7K

PnL

-$316.73

Record

56%

2788-2211 (4999)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,803.78

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$37.21

Record

57%

1660-1239 (2899)

Both legs:

No$1,067.2868.4¢+$158.24

Yes$736.525.7¢-$121.04

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Yes

Invested

$714.68

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$340.6

Record

49%

671-693 (1364)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$439.86

Value

$432.91

PnL

-$6.95

Record

53%

2127-1893 (4020)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$384.84

Value

$382.27

PnL

-$2.57

Record

49%

18854-19262 (38116)

torta.tech

Invested

$335.72

Value

$342.26

PnL

+$6.54

Record

63%

8086-4818 (12904)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$232.57

Value

$245.77

PnL

+$13.2

Record

52%

13670-12491 (26161)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.87

Value

$82.8

PnL

-$2.07

Record

50%

24706-24393 (49099)

RN1<$100

Invested

$39.34

Value

$41.74

PnL

+$2.4

Record

54%

56053-48184 (104237)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$37.74

Value

$37.38

PnL

-$0.36

Record

52%

3741-3403 (7144)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$14.8

Value

$15.9

PnL

+$1.1

Record

54%

6145-5212 (11357)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.83

Value

$1.7

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

41266-29916 (71182)

0010001000001100<$100

Invested

$1.52

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.29

Record

65%

1353-725 (2078)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.7%

81.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.