ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC: Both Teams to Score
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 68¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$1.2K
$98.58
67.6¢ → 67.5¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 68%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 68¢ | $444.03 | $447.3 | +$3.26 | 55% 6990-5610 (12600) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 35¢ | $238.75 | $395.21 | +$156.46 | 53% 15855-14037 (29892) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 32¢ | $193.92 | $190.89 | -$3.03 | 59% 45094-31483 (76577) |
FO Forecastication2 | Yesavg 66.7¢ | $178.31 | $112.32 | -$65.99 | 50% 6899-6893 (13792) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $11.99 | $19.87 | +$7.88 | 57% 13342-10199 (23541) |
0xheavy888Invested
$444.03
Value
$447.3
PnL
+$3.26
Record
55%
6990-5610 (12600)
Invested
$238.75
Value
$395.21
PnL
+$156.46
Record
53%
15855-14037 (29892)
Invested
$193.92
Value
$190.89
PnL
-$3.03
Record
59%
45094-31483 (76577)
Invested
$178.31
Value
$112.32
PnL
-$65.99
Record
50%
6899-6893 (13792)
Invested
$11.99
Value
$19.87
PnL
+$7.88
Record
57%
13342-10199 (23541)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.