Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-10-29?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 32¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$5.1K
$58.5
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BB BBQChickenisthebestttCTR | Yesavg 32¢ | $4.1K | $4.2K | +$64.5 | 58% 540-395 (935) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 68¢ | $471.28 | $467.82 | -$3.47 | 53% 15769-13947 (29716) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $371.38 | $337.5 | -$2.5 | 58% 40917-29601 (70518) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.4¢ | $67.1 | $67.24 | +$0.14 | 57% 13241-10089 (23330) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $26.66 | $26.46 | -$0.2 | 53% 2097-1856 (3953) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $3.4 | $3.43 | +$0.03 | 47% 2102-2381 (4483) |
Invested
$4,128
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$64.5
Record
58%
540-395 (935)
Invested
$471.28
Value
$467.82
PnL
-$3.47
Record
53%
15769-13947 (29716)
VeryLucky888Invested
$371.38
Value
$337.5
PnL
-$2.5
Record
58%
40917-29601 (70518)
Invested
$67.1
Value
$67.24
PnL
+$0.14
Record
57%
13241-10089 (23330)
Invested
$26.66
Value
$26.46
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
2097-1856 (3953)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$3.43
PnL
+$0.03
Record
47%
2102-2381 (4483)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.