Will Venezia FC win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.7K

Combined PnL

$29.25

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,063

Combined PnL+$25.2

Yes3 traders

Total Value$899.79

Total Shares9,551

Combined PnL+$4.05

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Noavg 90¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	+$14.98	65% 1753-960 (2713)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 90¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	+$10.28	72% 6826-2619 (9445)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$760.32	$764.34	+$4.03	50% 25632-25461 (51093)
CA CannaeARB<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$210.5	$209.76	-$0.37	53% 16110-14274 (30384)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9¢	$143.11	$143.11	-$0
└ No leg	Noavg 91¢	$67.39	$66.65	-$0.37
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 9¢	$135	$135	+$0	58% 42636-31031 (73667)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Noavg 91¢	$10.47	$10.35	-$0.06	53% 2247-1977 (4224)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.45	+$0.02	52% 7485-6781 (14266)

darkumbreon88

Invested

$2,696

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$14.98

Record

65%

1753-960 (2713)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$2,010.6

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$10.28

Record

72%

6826-2619 (9445)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$760.32

Value

$764.34

PnL

+$4.03

Record

50%

25632-25461 (51093)

CannaeARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$210.5

Value

$209.76

PnL

-$0.37

Record

53%

16110-14274 (30384)

Both legs:

Invested

$135

Value

$135

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

42636-31031 (73667)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Invested

$10.47

Value

$10.35

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

2247-1977 (4224)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.45

PnL

+$0.02

Record

52%

7485-6781 (14266)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (5 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.