Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: O/U 3.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 49¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$2.1K
$26.12
47.9¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.48 | 50% 25632-25461 (51093) |
KY Kyn008 | Underavg 51¢ | $936.27 | $945.45 | +$9.18 | 49% 253-262 (515) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Overavg 47¢ | $23.94 | $24.45 | +$0.76 | 72% 6826-2619 (9445) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $16.17 | $17.64 | +$1.65 | 53% 5577-5013 (10590) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $4.8 | +$0.05 | 50% 7122-7163 (14285) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $145.09 | $3.2 | +$2.99 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
Invested
$1,102.29
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.48
Record
50%
25632-25461 (51093)
Invested
$936.27
Value
$945.45
PnL
+$9.18
Record
49%
253-262 (515)
Invested
$23.94
Value
$24.45
PnL
+$0.76
Record
72%
6826-2619 (9445)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$16.17
Value
$17.64
PnL
+$1.65
Record
53%
5577-5013 (10590)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0.05
Record
50%
7122-7163 (14285)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$145.09
Value
$3.2
PnL
+$2.99
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.