Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (89%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: O/U 1.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 11¢ · $901 held · ends Nov 1

Over89¢Under11¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$900.54

Combined PnL

$23

Smart Money Entry

11¢ → 11¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over89%

Under11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$575.82

Total Shares5,043

Combined PnL+$24.15

Over2 traders

Total Value$324.72

Total Shares369

Combined PnL-$1.16

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 11¢	$464	$485.09	+$21.09	50% 25632-25461 (51093)
Socialista	Overavg 88¢	$264	$264	-$1.5	63% 2722-1610 (4332)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Underavg 11.1¢	$91.8	$90.73	+$3.06	53% 16110-14274 (30384)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Overavg 88¢	$60.72	$60.72	+$0.35	50% 7122-7163 (14285)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$464

Value

$485.09

PnL

+$21.09

Record

50%

25632-25461 (51093)

Socialista

Over

Invested

$264

Value

$264

PnL

-$1.5

Record

63%

2722-1610 (4332)

CannaeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.8

Value

$90.73

PnL

+$3.06

Record

53%

16110-14274 (30384)

Forecastication2<$100

Over

Invested

$60.72

Value

$60.72

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

7122-7163 (14285)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 89%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.5%

11.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$698.21

Max Loss

-$100.00

798.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.