Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: O/U 0.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 83%
$9.4K
$276.68
96.5¢ → 100¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 96.5¢ | $8.6K | $8.9K | +$308.97 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 96.9¢ | $195.47 | $201.7 | +$6.23 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Overavg 97.2¢ | $191.56 | $196.9 | -$9.43 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 92.8¢ | $98.63 | $106.23 | +$7.61 | 49% 13009-13568 (26577) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 97.2¢ | $26.51 | $27.25 | +$0.08 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 6.8¢ | $37.04 | $0.27 | -$36.77 | 50% 11169-10980 (22149) |
Invested
$8,581.08
Value
$8.9K
PnL
+$308.97
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Invested
$195.47
Value
$201.7
PnL
+$6.23
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$191.56
Value
$196.9
PnL
-$9.43
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
Invested
$98.63
Value
$106.23
PnL
+$7.61
Record
49%
13009-13568 (26577)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.51
Value
$27.25
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$37.04
Value
$0.27
PnL
-$36.77
Record
50%
11169-10980 (22149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.