Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: Como 1907 O/U 2.5
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 74¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 60%
$1.7K
$271.01
52.9¢ → 73.5¢
+39% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 53¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$343.52 | 50% 33838-33423 (67261) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Overavg 41.6¢ | $365.93 | $288.06 | -$78.06 | 48% 8937-9552 (18489) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 49.4¢ | $21.8 | $25.58 | +$3.78 | 56% 14224-11027 (25251) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $12.19 | $14.92 | +$2.73 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $7.68 | $6.72 | -$0.96 | 53% 2247-1977 (4224) |
Invested
$1,068.99
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$343.52
Record
50%
33838-33423 (67261)
Invested
$365.93
Value
$288.06
PnL
-$78.06
Record
48%
8937-9552 (18489)
Invested
$21.8
Value
$25.58
PnL
+$3.78
Record
56%
14224-11027 (25251)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$12.19
Value
$14.92
PnL
+$2.73
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
Invested
$7.68
Value
$6.72
PnL
-$0.96
Record
53%
2247-1977 (4224)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.