Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: Como 1907 O/U 1.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 66¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Over66¢Under34¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$671.32

Smart Money Entry

71.8¢ → 65.5¢

-9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares13,263

Combined PnL+$554.92

Over5 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,751

Combined PnL+$116.39

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 29.6¢	$2.3K	$2.5K	+$111.48	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
DA darkumbreon88	Overavg 77¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$26.83	65% 1753-960 (2713)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 55.5¢	$677.91	$977.75	+$299.84	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22	Overavg 74¢	$740	$765	-$155	65% 1235-669 (1904)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Overavg 76.2¢	$635.74	$638.24	-$1.66	53% 2247-1977 (4224)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 21¢	$565.74	$619.62	+$80.82	49% 1197-1224 (2421)
poshposhCTR	Underavg 20¢	$306.25	$361.04	+$362.29	58% 10646-7629 (18275)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 28.1¢	$263.42	$299.96	+$36.54	50% 33838-33423 (67261)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 44.4¢	$76.78	$40.61	-$36.17	53% 5597-5025 (10622)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Overavg 74¢	$6.19	$6.24	+$0.05	53% 5694-5029 (10723)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 23.5¢	$6.92	$5.69	-$0.03	56% 14224-11027 (25251)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$2,348.49

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$111.48

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

darkumbreon88

Over

Invested

$2,066.21

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$26.83

Record

65%

1753-960 (2713)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$677.91

Value

$977.75

PnL

+$299.84

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

0x8ae599cc1fdeb17c95e2af00bd75a38034bd4f22

Over

Invested

$740

Value

$765

PnL

-$155

Record

65%

1235-669 (1904)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Over

Invested

$635.74

Value

$638.24

PnL

-$1.66

Record

53%

2247-1977 (4224)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$565.74

Value

$619.62

PnL

+$80.82

Record

49%

1197-1224 (2421)

poshposhCTR

Under

Invested

$306.25

Value

$361.04

PnL

+$362.29

Record

58%

10646-7629 (18275)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$263.42

Value

$299.96

PnL

+$36.54

Record

50%

33838-33423 (67261)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$76.78

Value

$40.61

PnL

-$36.17

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Over

Invested

$6.19

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

5694-5029 (10723)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.92

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$0.03

Record

56%

14224-11027 (25251)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.