Spread: Como 1907 (-2.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Venezia FC (80%) · Venezia FC at 70¢ · $830 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Venezia FC
5
Venezia FC 80%
$830.26
$12.33
68.4¢ → 69.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralVenezia FC at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Venezia FC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Venezia FCavg 68.3¢ | $555.45 | $565.01 | +$9.56 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Venezia FCavg 68.8¢ | $197.01 | $198.87 | +$1.86 | 53% 5694-5029 (10723) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Venezia FCavg 68.2¢ | $51.56 | $52.14 | +$0.96 | 56% 14220-11020 (25240) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Venezia FCavg 67.7¢ | $10.15 | $10.35 | +$0.28 | 52% 7485-6781 (14266) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Como 1907avg 33¢ | $4.29 | $3.9 | -$0.32 | 50% 7122-7163 (14285) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$555.45
Value
$565.01
PnL
+$9.56
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$197.01
Value
$198.87
PnL
+$1.86
Record
53%
5694-5029 (10723)
Invested
$51.56
Value
$52.14
PnL
+$0.96
Record
56%
14220-11020 (25240)
Invested
$10.15
Value
$10.35
PnL
+$0.28
Record
52%
7485-6781 (14266)
Invested
$4.29
Value
$3.9
PnL
-$0.32
Record
50%
7122-7163 (14285)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.