Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Como 1907 (20%) · Como 1907 at 54¢ · $329 held · ends Nov 1

Como 190754¢Venezia FC46¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Como 1907

Consensus Traders

Como 1907 20%

Total Value

$329.08

Combined PnL

$2.95

Research grade

NeutralComo 1907 at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Como 1907

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Como 190754%

Venezia FC47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Como 19071 trader

Total Value$259.72

Total Shares485

Combined PnL+$2.43

Venezia FC4 traders

Total Value$69.36

Total Shares150

Combined PnL+$0.53

Como 1907 — 20%Venezia FC — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Como 1907avg 53¢	$257.3	$259.72	+$2.43	65% 1736-949 (2685)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Venezia FCavg 46¢	$25.93	$26.22	+$0.28	53% 16036-14210 (30246)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Venezia FCavg 46¢	$20.24	$20.46	+$0.22	49% 12788-13237 (26025)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Venezia FCavg 46¢	$20.44	$20.44	-$0	73% 6739-2446 (9185)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Venezia FCavg 46¢	$2.21	$2.23	+$0.02	58% 42202-30652 (72854)

darkumbreon88

Como 1907

Invested

$257.3

Value

$259.72

PnL

+$2.43

Record

65%

1736-949 (2685)

CannaeCTR<$100

Venezia FC

Invested

$25.93

Value

$26.22

PnL

+$0.28

Record

53%

16036-14210 (30246)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Venezia FC

Invested

$20.24

Value

$20.46

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

12788-13237 (26025)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Venezia FC

Invested

$20.44

Value

$20.44

PnL

-$0

Record

73%

6739-2446 (9185)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Venezia FC

Invested

$2.21

Value

$2.23

PnL

+$0.02

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

Research grade

NeutralComo 1907 at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Como 1907

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Como 1907 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.