Spread: Venezia FC (-1.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Como 1907 (80%) · Como 1907 at 100¢ · $540 held · ended Nov 1

Venezia FC<1¢Como 1907>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Como 1907

Consensus Traders

Como 1907 80%

Total Value

$540.32

Combined PnL

-$98.74

Smart Money Entry

96.6¢ → 99.7¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralComo 1907 at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Como 1907

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Venezia FC0%

Como 1907100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Como 19074 traders

Total Value$524.16

Total Shares522

Combined PnL+$1.82

Venezia FC1 trader

Total Value$16.16

Total Shares4,617

Combined PnL-$100.56

Como 1907 — 80%Venezia FC — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Como 1907. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleComo 1907 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrComo 1907 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedComo 1907 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Como 1907 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CA Cannae	Como 1907avg 96.5¢	$472.28	$473.9	+$0.91	53% 16112-14276 (30388)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Como 1907avg 96.6¢	$22.22	$22.49	+$0.53	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
GH ghorrock<$100	Como 1907avg 97.1¢	$28.08	$17.17	+$0.09	56% 14224-11027 (25251)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Venezia FCavg 2.6¢	$121.34	$16.16	-$100.56	50% 25644-25471 (51115)
HRTrading<$100	Como 1907avg 96.9¢	$10.3	$10.59	+$0.29	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

Cannae

Como 1907

Invested

$472.28

Value

$473.9

PnL

+$0.91

Record

53%

16112-14276 (30388)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$22.22

Value

$22.49

PnL

+$0.53

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

ghorrock<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$28.08

Value

$17.17

PnL

+$0.09

Record

56%

14224-11027 (25251)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Venezia FC

Invested

$121.34

Value

$16.16

PnL

-$100.56

Record

50%

25644-25471 (51115)

HRTrading<$100

Como 1907

Invested

$10.3

Value

$10.59

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

NeutralComo 1907 at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Como 1907

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Como 1907. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleComo 1907 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrComo 1907 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedComo 1907 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Como 1907 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Como 1907 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.