Como 1907 leading at halftime?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 100¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 1

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

Total Value

$9.0K

Combined PnL

$5.1K

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 100¢

+137% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares8,978

Combined PnL+$5.0K

No3 traders

Total Value$0.13

Total Shares256

Combined PnL+$58.79

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ThePhantasmagoria	Yesavg 33.5¢	$2.5K	$7.5K	+$5.0K	— 2-3 (5)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Yesavg 99¢	$504.9	$509.75	+$4.85	95% 23101-1165 (24266)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 77.2¢	$486.27	$471.78	-$14.49	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
poshposh	Yesavg 86.5¢	$352.7	$378.9	+$61.65	58% 10646-7629 (18275)
FO Forecastication2	Yesavg 58¢	$70.76	$120.78	-$15.86	50% 7122-7164 (14286)
AR ARocky33<$100	Yesavg 80.7¢	$24.2	$29.99	+$5.79	76% 4143-1304 (5447)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$98.17	$0.12	+$65.85	57% 29224-21607 (50831)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$5.22	$0.01	-$5.21	56% 14224-11027 (25251)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$1.84	$0	-$1.84	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

ThePhantasmagoria

Yes

Invested

$2,500

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$5.0K

Record

—

2-3 (5)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Yes

Invested

$504.9

Value

$509.75

PnL

+$4.85

Record

95%

23101-1165 (24266)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$486.27

Value

$471.78

PnL

-$14.49

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$352.7

Value

$378.9

PnL

+$61.65

Record

58%

10646-7629 (18275)

Forecastication2

Yes

Invested

$70.76

Value

$120.78

PnL

-$15.86

Record

50%

7122-7164 (14286)

ARocky33<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.2

Value

$29.99

PnL

+$5.79

Record

76%

4143-1304 (5447)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$98.17

Value

$0.12

PnL

+$65.85

Record

57%

29224-21607 (50831)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$5.22

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$5.21

Record

56%

14224-11027 (25251)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$1.84

Value

PnL

-$1.84

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.