Exact Score: Como 1907 1 - 0 Venezia FC?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.9K
-$18.08
90¢ → 78¢
-13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 90¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$86.89 | 54% 57141-49402 (106543) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 91¢ | $273 | $240 | -$18 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $110.42 | $202.93 | +$92.5 | 59% 46876-33139 (80015) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 91.5¢ | $62.8 | $54.93 | -$7.87 | 56% 14224-11027 (25251) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $25.21 | $27.39 | +$2.18 | 50% 19431-19804 (39235) |
RN1Invested
$1,405.31
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$86.89
Record
54%
57141-49402 (106543)
VeryLucky888Invested
$273
Value
$240
PnL
-$18
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
Invested
$110.42
Value
$202.93
PnL
+$92.5
Record
59%
46876-33139 (80015)
Invested
$62.8
Value
$54.93
PnL
-$7.87
Record
56%
14224-11027 (25251)
Invested
$25.21
Value
$27.39
PnL
+$2.18
Record
50%
19431-19804 (39235)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.