Will Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC end in a draw?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 90¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1

Yes11¢No89¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

-$235.2

Smart Money Entry

87.6¢ → 89.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares5,134

Combined PnL+$13.16

Yes7 traders

Total Value$834.62

Total Shares7,949

Combined PnL-$248.36

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 90¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$21.81	54% 57141-49402 (106543)
AN AnonymousUsername	Noavg 84¢	$784.8	$945.44	+$33.16	72% 6827-2619 (9446)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 83.5¢	$800.54	$735.26	+$0.18	58% 42662-31048 (73710)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 11.1¢	$400.22	$378.95	-$21.27	50% 25644-25471 (51115)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 16.2¢	$453.38	$293.65	-$159.72	59% 46876-33139 (80015)
KY Kyn008CTR	Yesavg 15¢	$210.68	$147.48	-$63.2	49% 255-266 (521)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 88.5¢	$95.39	$96.43	+$1.04	48% 8937-9552 (18489)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 89¢	$96.5	$82.85	-$13.65	57% 1814-1366 (3180)
└ No leg	Noavg 89¢	$57.85	$58.18	+$0.33
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 16.4¢	$38.65	$24.68	-$13.97
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100	Noavg 81¢	$13.6	$14.2	+$0.6	52% 13922-12694 (26616)
LI LilybaeumCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$6.52	$6.85	+$0.33	61% 13791-8664 (22455)
BI BillBenter2026CTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$4.8	$3.15	-$1.65	58% 18782-13843 (32625)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$5.29	$3.09	-$2.21	49% 13009-13568 (26577)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.1	$1.47	-$0.63	53% 5597-5025 (10622)

RN1

Invested

$2,830.99

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$21.81

Record

54%

57141-49402 (106543)

AnonymousUsername

Invested

$784.8

Value

$945.44

PnL

+$33.16

Record

72%

6827-2619 (9446)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$800.54

Value

$735.26

PnL

+$0.18

Record

58%

42662-31048 (73710)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$400.22

Value

$378.95

PnL

-$21.27

Record

50%

25644-25471 (51115)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$453.38

Value

$293.65

PnL

-$159.72

Record

59%

46876-33139 (80015)

Kyn008CTR

Yes

Invested

$210.68

Value

$147.48

PnL

-$63.2

Record

49%

255-266 (521)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$95.39

Value

$96.43

PnL

+$1.04

Record

48%

8937-9552 (18489)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$96.5

Value

$82.85

PnL

-$13.65

Record

57%

1814-1366 (3180)

Both legs:

No$57.8589¢+$0.33

Yes$38.6516.4¢-$13.97

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2<$100

Invested

$13.6

Value

$14.2

PnL

+$0.6

Record

52%

13922-12694 (26616)

LilybaeumCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.52

Value

$6.85

PnL

+$0.33

Record

61%

13791-8664 (22455)

BillBenter2026CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.8

Value

$3.15

PnL

-$1.65

Record

58%

18782-13843 (32625)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.29

Value

$3.09

PnL

-$2.21

Record

49%

13009-13568 (26577)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.1

Value

$1.47

PnL

-$0.63

Record

53%

5597-5025 (10622)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (9 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.