Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$3.3K
$7.33
50¢ → 50.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO Gooooooollllllllll | Overavg 50¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$17.02 | 50% 1231-1223 (2454) |
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186CTR | Underavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $990 | -$10 | 53% 138-124 (262) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 49.5¢ | $519.48 | $519.73 | +$0.25 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 49.5¢ | $63.35 | $63.36 | +$0.01 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Overavg 49.5¢ | $5.2 | $5.25 | +$0.05 | 49% 18981-19394 (38375) |
Invested
$1,692.26
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$17.02
Record
50%
1231-1223 (2454)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$990
PnL
-$10
Record
53%
138-124 (262)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$519.48
Value
$519.73
PnL
+$0.25
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
Invested
$63.35
Value
$63.36
PnL
+$0.01
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
Invested
$5.2
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
18981-19394 (38375)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.