Will Como 1907 win on 2026-11-01?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 76¢ · $218 held · ends Nov 1

Yes76¢No24¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$218.47

Combined PnL

$12.43

Smart Money Entry

72.2¢ → 75.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes76%

No25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$141.88

Total Shares189

Combined PnL+$6.17

No3 traders

Total Value$76.59

Total Shares288

Combined PnL+$6.26

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 72¢	$126.62	$131.89	+$6.15	65% 1707-928 (2635)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$60.76	$63.29	+$2.53	74% 6672-2394 (9066)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 25.4¢	$12.99	$12.98	-$0.15	53% 4616-4152 (8768)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 75¢	$6.2	$6.24	+$0.04	53% 2174-1925 (4099)
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186<$100	Yesavg 76¢	$3.8	$3.75	-$0.03	52% 139-127 (266)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 24¢	$93.4	$0.32	+$3.89	58% 41902-30424 (72326)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$126.62

Value

$131.89

PnL

+$6.15

Record

65%

1707-928 (2635)

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Invested

$60.76

Value

$63.29

PnL

+$2.53

Record

74%

6672-2394 (9066)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$12.99

Value

$12.98

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

4616-4152 (8768)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.2

Value

$6.24

PnL

+$0.04

Record

53%

2174-1925 (4099)

0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.8

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

139-127 (266)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$93.4

Value

$0.32

PnL

+$3.89

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 76%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (5 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.