Como 1907 vs. Venezia FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 59¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.2K
$29.62
57.5¢ → 59¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $549.74 | $553.29 | +$3.55 | 55% 7313-5880 (13193) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 41¢ | $232.06 | $232.06 | +$0 | 59% 46853-33124 (79977) |
AN AnonymousUsername | Yesavg 55¢ | $178.2 | $191.16 | +$11.34 | 72% 6826-2619 (9445) |
 VeryLucky888 | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $339 | $177 | +$15 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $13.76 | $13.41 | -$0.27 | 53% 16110-14274 (30384) |
0xheavy888Invested
$549.74
Value
$553.29
PnL
+$3.55
Record
55%
7313-5880 (13193)
Invested
$232.06
Value
$232.06
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
46853-33124 (79977)
Invested
$178.2
Value
$191.16
PnL
+$11.34
Record
72%
6826-2619 (9445)
VeryLucky888Invested
$339
Value
$177
PnL
+$15
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$13.76
Value
$13.41
PnL
-$0.27
Record
53%
16110-14274 (30384)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.