Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Cagliari Calcio vs. Frosinone Calcio: O/U 3.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (60%) · Over at 43¢ · $43 held · ends Nov 7

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 60%

Total Value

$43.14

Combined PnL

-$1.59

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$30.79

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$0.5

Under2 traders

Total Value$12.35

Total Shares24

Combined PnL-$1.1

Over — 60%Under — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$20.68	$20.09	-$0.59	50% 1594-1615 (3209)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Underavg 65¢	$10.55	$9.5	-$1.05	53% 2621-2316 (4937)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 42.2¢	$8.44	$8.2	-$0.24	51% 1649-1557 (3206)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.85	-$0.05	52% 8855-8042 (16897)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 43.2¢	$2.16	$2.5	+$0.34	50% 1611-1639 (3250)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.68

Value

$20.09

PnL

-$0.59

Record

50%

1594-1615 (3209)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Under

Invested

$10.55

Value

$9.5

PnL

-$1.05

Record

53%

2621-2316 (4937)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.44

Value

$8.2

PnL

-$0.24

Record

51%

1649-1557 (3206)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

52%

8855-8042 (16897)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.16

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

1611-1639 (3250)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 43%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.