Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Monza: O/U 3.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (55%) · Under at 54¢ · $15K held · ended Oct 31

Over47¢Under53¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 55%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

$149.19

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 53.5¢

-6% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$11.3K

Total Shares17,421

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares9,923

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Under — 55%Over — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RA rabbitfoot1	Underavg 54¢	$7.5K	$9.6K	+$2.1K	53% 1134-991 (2125)
RN1CTR	Overavg 46¢	$3.9K	$2.7K	$-1.3K	54% 56601-48769 (105370)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 68.6¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$566.63	59% 45816-32172 (77988)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Underavg 69¢	$362	$389.6	+$27.6	55% 7124-5713 (12837)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69¢	$322.22	$287.19	+$2.33
└ Over leg	Overavg 29¢	$77.14	$102.41	+$25.27
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR	Overavg 30¢	$281.22	$290.59	+$9.37	54% 4884-4115 (8999)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 69.3¢	$319.05	$207.26	-$111.8	50% 25098-24836 (49934)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR	Overavg 30.3¢	$102.25	$126.75	+$24.5	58% 28695-21181 (49876)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 69.5¢	$23.63	$17.84	-$5.79	53% 4633-4164 (8797)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$25.44	$17.52	-$7.91	55% 2909-2339 (5248)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 54¢	$2.76	$3.53	+$0.77	50% 10864-10681 (21545)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 29¢	$1.18	$1.65	+$0.48	48% 2393-2622 (5015)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 55¢	$1.22	$1.53	+$0.31	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

rabbitfoot1

Under

Invested

$7,537.28

Value

$9.6K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

53%

1134-991 (2125)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$3,949.56

Value

$2.7K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

56601-48769 (105370)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,033.39

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$566.63

Record

59%

45816-32172 (77988)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$362

Value

$389.6

PnL

+$27.6

Record

55%

7124-5713 (12837)

Both legs:

Under$322.2269¢+$2.33

Over$77.1429¢+$25.27

WeBuyHighWeSelllowCTR

Over

Invested

$281.22

Value

$290.59

PnL

+$9.37

Record

54%

4884-4115 (8999)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$319.05

Value

$207.26

PnL

-$111.8

Record

50%

25098-24836 (49934)

LeLynxMalynxCTR

Over

Invested

$102.25

Value

$126.75

PnL

+$24.5

Record

58%

28695-21181 (49876)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$23.63

Value

$17.84

PnL

-$5.79

Record

53%

4633-4164 (8797)

Anon455CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.44

Value

$17.52

PnL

-$7.91

Record

55%

2909-2339 (5248)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$2.76

Value

$3.53

PnL

+$0.77

Record

50%

10864-10681 (21545)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.18

Value

$1.65

PnL

+$0.48

Record

48%

2393-2622 (5015)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$1.22

Value

$1.53

PnL

+$0.31

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 11 top traders (55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.