Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Monza: O/U 1.5
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 50%
$3.4K
$456.96
76¢ → 100¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 76¢ | $1.4K | $1.8K | +$396.27 | 50% 25098-24836 (49934) |
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow | Overavg 76¢ | $988 | $1.0K | +$13 | 54% 4884-4115 (8999) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 76¢ | $495.05 | $545.49 | +$50.44 | 59% 45816-32172 (77988) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 77¢ | $30.8 | $36.2 | +$5.4 | 58% 28695-21181 (49876) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 10¢ | $5.22 | $5.48 | +$0.26 | 50% 10864-10681 (21545) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $6.09 | $0.06 | -$6.03 | 49% 7973-8309 (16282) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 23¢ | $4.85 | $0.01 | -$4.84 | 53% 4633-4164 (8797) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 21.6¢ | $45.48 | $0 | +$2.45 | 58% 41916-30432 (72348) |
Invested
$1,372.17
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$396.27
Record
50%
25098-24836 (49934)
Invested
$988
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$13
Record
54%
4884-4115 (8999)
Invested
$495.05
Value
$545.49
PnL
+$50.44
Record
59%
45816-32172 (77988)
Invested
$30.8
Value
$36.2
PnL
+$5.4
Record
58%
28695-21181 (49876)
Invested
$5.22
Value
$5.48
PnL
+$0.26
Record
50%
10864-10681 (21545)
Invested
$6.09
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$6.03
Record
49%
7973-8309 (16282)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$4.84
Record
53%
4633-4164 (8797)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$45.48
Value
$0
PnL
+$2.45
Record
58%
41916-30432 (72348)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.