Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AC Monza: Both Teams to Score
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 49¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
2 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$5.77
46.9¢ → 48.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 47¢ | $563.94 | $552.08 | -$5.86 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
 0xheavy888ARB<$100 | Noavg 46.8¢ | $474.02 | $470.76 | +$1.83 | 55% 7124-5713 (12837) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 46.8¢ | $238.26 | $236.81 | +$3.64 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $235.76 | $233.95 | -$1.81 | |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $115.97 | $115.52 | +$0.34 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 54¢ | $78.84 | $79.57 | +$0.73 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 47¢ | $37.13 | $35.95 | -$0.4 | |
CA Cannae<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $73.56 | $73.56 | -$0.69 | 53% 15954-14130 (30084) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.5¢ | $31.86 | $32.55 | +$0.69 | 57% 13804-10576 (24380) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 46.1¢ | $12.92 | $13.02 | +$0.1 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
Invested
$563.94
Value
$552.08
PnL
-$5.86
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
0xheavy888ARB<$100Invested
$474.02
Value
$470.76
PnL
+$1.83
Record
55%
7124-5713 (12837)
Both legs:
Invested
$115.97
Value
$115.52
PnL
+$0.34
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.56
Value
$73.56
PnL
-$0.69
Record
53%
15954-14130 (30084)
Invested
$31.86
Value
$32.55
PnL
+$0.69
Record
57%
13804-10576 (24380)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.92
Value
$13.02
PnL
+$0.1
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.