Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-10-31?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 57¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$13.8K
$42.65
57¢ → 57.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88 | Yesavg 57¢ | $11.9K | $11.9K | -$0 | 65% 1707-928 (2635) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR | Noavg 41.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$35.4 | 74% 6672-2394 (9066) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 42¢ | $277.2 | $280.46 | +$3.26 | 58% 41902-30424 (72326) |
CA CannaeCTR | Noavg 42¢ | $178.47 | $182.71 | +$4.25 | 53% 15954-14130 (30084) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Yesavg 57.4¢ | $49.5 | $49.17 | -$0.33 | 53% 2174-1925 (4099) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $3.15 | $3.22 | +$0.07 | 53% 4616-4152 (8768) |
Invested
$11,875.39
Value
$11.9K
PnL
-$0
Record
65%
1707-928 (2635)
Invested
$1,367.43
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$35.4
Record
74%
6672-2394 (9066)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$277.2
Value
$280.46
PnL
+$3.26
Record
58%
41902-30424 (72326)
Invested
$178.47
Value
$182.71
PnL
+$4.25
Record
53%
15954-14130 (30084)
Invested
$49.5
Value
$49.17
PnL
-$0.33
Record
53%
2174-1925 (4099)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.22
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
4616-4152 (8768)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.