Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-11-02?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 65¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 2

Yes65¢No35¢Ends Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$6.53

Smart Money Entry

65.1¢ → 64.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes65%

No36%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$941.37

Total Shares1,459

Combined PnL-$8.87

No3 traders

Total Value$166.22

Total Shares468

Combined PnL+$2.34

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HY hydra1248	Yesavg 65¢	$897.14	$890.24	-$6.9	— 6-5 (11)
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR	Noavg 35¢	$137.19	$139.15	+$1.96	73% 6739-2446 (9185)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 67¢	$52.71	$51.13	-$1.97	65% 1736-949 (2685)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$22.93	$23.25	+$0.33	53% 16036-14210 (30246)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 35¢	$3.76	$3.81	+$0.05	58% 42202-30652 (72854)

hydra1248

Yes

Invested

$897.14

Value

$890.24

PnL

-$6.9

Record

—

6-5 (11)

AnonymousUsernameCTR

Invested

$137.19

Value

$139.15

PnL

+$1.96

Record

73%

6739-2446 (9185)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.71

Value

$51.13

PnL

-$1.97

Record

65%

1736-949 (2685)

CannaeCTR<$100

Invested

$22.93

Value

$23.25

PnL

+$0.33

Record

53%

16036-14210 (30246)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 65%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.