Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (52%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
St Mirren FC vs. Hibernian FC: O/U 2.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 49¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$6.7K
-$22.17
47.9¢ → 48.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 49%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 us391CTR | Underavg 48¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | -$47.25 | 51% 1646-1580 (3226) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 52¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$18.75 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
BE berlinskiesCTR | Underavg 48.3¢ | $175 | $172.02 | -$2.98 | 58% 5761-4227 (9988) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 44.6¢ | $109.35 | $102.46 | +$9.31 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
us391CTRInvested
$4,536.01
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$47.25
Record
51%
1646-1580 (3226)
Invested
$1,950.46
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$18.75
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
Invested
$175
Value
$172.02
PnL
-$2.98
Record
58%
5761-4227 (9988)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$109.35
Value
$102.46
PnL
+$9.31
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.