Will Hibernian FC win on 2026-10-28?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$3.5K
-$122.5
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME metski29 | Noavg 58.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.2K | -$281.57 | 45% 299-371 (670) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $444.36 | $513.13 | +$68.77 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $281 | $324.49 | +$43.49 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
CA CannaeCTR | Yesavg 41.7¢ | $236.55 | $249.04 | +$12.5 | 53% 15742-13910 (29652) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $159.97 | $189.24 | +$29.26 | 47% 2409-2693 (5102) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.1¢ | $88.4 | $93.45 | +$5.05 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
Invested
$2,456.63
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$281.57
Record
45%
299-371 (670)
Invested
$444.36
Value
$513.13
PnL
+$68.77
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$281
Value
$324.49
PnL
+$43.49
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$236.55
Value
$249.04
PnL
+$12.5
Record
53%
15742-13910 (29652)
Invested
$159.97
Value
$189.24
PnL
+$29.26
Record
47%
2409-2693 (5102)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$88.4
Value
$93.45
PnL
+$5.05
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.