Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
St Mirren FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Score
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 43¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 5
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.2K
-$71.37
26¢ → 42.5¢
+64% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Noavg 33.8¢ | $560.84 | $689.4 | +$128.56 | 58% 50268-36310 (86578) |
IS IsraelDJJBCTR | Noavg 16.1¢ | $200 | $527.26 | -$200 | 48% 69-74 (143) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $58 | $20.11 | -$0.38 | 58% 45427-32914 (78341) |
AR ARocky33<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $3.25 | $5 | +$1.75 | 76% 4413-1366 (5779) |
 RN1<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.88 | +$0.33 | 53% 60059-52427 (112486) |
US User7429<$100 | Yesavg 90¢ | $4.5 | $2.88 | -$1.63 | 56% 8924-7131 (16055) |
Invested
$560.84
Value
$689.4
PnL
+$128.56
Record
58%
50268-36310 (86578)
Invested
$200
Value
$527.26
PnL
-$200
Record
48%
69-74 (143)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$58
Value
$20.11
PnL
-$0.38
Record
58%
45427-32914 (78341)
Invested
$3.25
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.75
Record
76%
4413-1366 (5779)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.88
PnL
+$0.33
Record
53%
60059-52427 (112486)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$2.88
PnL
-$1.63
Record
56%
8924-7131 (16055)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.