Kilmarnock FC vs. St Johnstone FC: O/U 2.5

6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (55%) · Over at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 31

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 55%

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

57.9¢ → 100¢

+73% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,280

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under5 traders

Total Value$58.08

Total Shares681

Combined PnL-$113.35

Over — 55%Under — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 57.4¢	$1.7K	$3.0K	+$1.3K	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 56¢	$112	$199.9	+$87.9	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 42.6¢	$51.62	$49.44	-$2.18	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 99¢	$41.16	$41.55	+$0.39	49% 19169-19561 (38730)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$8.25	$8.42	+$0.18	39% 419-667 (1086)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$7	$7	-$0.01	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 71¢	$3.55	$5	+$1.45	74% 1592-569 (2161)
OL oliverea<$100	Overavg 58¢	$1.38	$1.81	+$0.01	58% 314-224 (538)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$99.68	$0.19	-$99.49	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$9.31	$0.02	-$9.29	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 36.1¢	$2.58	$0	-$2.57	49% 12639-13031 (25670)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,735.08

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$112

Value

$199.9

PnL

+$87.9

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.62

Value

$49.44

PnL

-$2.18

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$41.16

Value

$41.55

PnL

+$0.39

Record

49%

19169-19561 (38730)

OddstormCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.25

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$0.18

Record

39%

419-667 (1086)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0.01

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$3.55

Value

PnL

+$1.45

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

oliverea<$100

Over

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.81

PnL

+$0.01

Record

58%

314-224 (538)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$99.68

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$99.49

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.31

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.29

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

PnL

-$2.57

Record

49%

12639-13031 (25670)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

whaleOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.