Will Kilmarnock FC win on 2026-10-31?

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 80¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 31

Yes80¢No20¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$28.99

Smart Money Entry

86.4¢ → 80¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes80%

No20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$354.22

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$66.41

No6 traders

Total Value$200.49

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL+$37.42

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$810.84	$898.06	+$87.22	50% 25104-24842 (49946)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 87¢	$641.19	$589.6	-$51.59
└ No leg	Noavg 11¢	$169.65	$308.46	+$138.81
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 82.8¢	$277.43	$226.22	-$51.21	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
RN1CTR	Noavg 13¢	$95.81	$147.4	+$51.59	54% 56611-48781 (105392)
RO Rocky31	Yesavg 92¢	$143.2	$128	-$15.2	74% 1592-569 (2161)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$12	$30	+$18	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 29.9¢	$17.91	$13.41	-$4.5	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 55¢	$31.34	$7.98	-$23.36	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 57.5¢	$11.5	$1.4	-$4.4	58% 41929-30449 (72378)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$0.21	$0.3	+$0.09	54% 6286-5324 (11610)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$810.84

Value

$898.06

PnL

+$87.22

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Both legs:

Invested

$277.43

Value

$226.22

PnL

-$51.21

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

RN1CTR

Invested

$95.81

Value

$147.4

PnL

+$51.59

Record

54%

56611-48781 (105392)

Rocky31

Yes

Invested

$143.2

Value

$128

PnL

-$15.2

Record

74%

1592-569 (2161)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$12

Value

$30

PnL

+$18

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$17.91

Value

$13.41

PnL

-$4.5

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$31.34

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$23.36

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$1.4

PnL

-$4.4

Record

58%

41929-30449 (72378)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

$0.21

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.09

Record

54%

6286-5324 (11610)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 80%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.8%

80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$22.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

122.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.