Will St Johnstone FC win on 2026-10-31?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $205 held · ended Oct 31

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$205.27

Combined PnL

$3.96

Smart Money Entry

93.9¢ → 96¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$200.2

Total Shares208

Combined PnL+$4.47

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.07

Total Shares28

Combined PnL-$0.51

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 94.8¢	$160.93	$163.1	+$2.17	59% 45819-32178 (77997)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 95.7¢	$18.97	$19.04	+$0.07	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 84.2¢	$15.83	$18.06	+$2.23	53% 4646-4187 (8833)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$4.24	$4.6	-$0.54	53% 15956-14132 (30088)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$0.35	$0.28	-$0.07	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.1	$0.2	+$0.1	50% 25104-24842 (49946)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$160.93

Value

$163.1

PnL

+$2.17

Record

59%

45819-32178 (77997)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$18.97

Value

$19.04

PnL

+$0.07

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$15.83

Value

$18.06

PnL

+$2.23

Record

53%

4646-4187 (8833)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.24

Value

$4.6

PnL

-$0.54

Record

53%

15956-14132 (30088)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.28

PnL

-$0.07

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

50%

25104-24842 (49946)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.2%

96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.