St Johnstone FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 4.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 81¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
6
Under 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.9K
$31.26
80¢ → 80.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 79.8¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$66.54 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Overavg 20¢ | $167.76 | $188.38 | +$20.62 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 14¢ | $104.74 | $167.85 | +$63.11 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 20¢ | $134.64 | $151.47 | +$16.83 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 80.9¢ | $149.62 | $133.99 | -$15.63 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 80.9¢ | $124.66 | $100.87 | -$23.79 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 26¢ | $24.96 | $33.12 | +$8.16 | |
 poshposh | Underavg 79¢ | $118.5 | $115.5 | -$3 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 87¢ | $41.76 | $42 | +$0.24 | 58% 28127-20735 (48862) |
Invested
$1,192.25
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$66.54
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$167.76
Value
$188.38
PnL
+$20.62
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
RN1CTRInvested
$104.74
Value
$167.85
PnL
+$63.11
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$134.64
Value
$151.47
PnL
+$16.83
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$149.62
Value
$133.99
PnL
-$15.63
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Both legs:
poshposhInvested
$118.5
Value
$115.5
PnL
-$3
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$41.76
Value
$42
PnL
+$0.24
Record
58%
28127-20735 (48862)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.