Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
St Johnstone FC vs. Motherwell FC: O/U 3.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 43¢ · $266 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$266.18
-$44.14
59.6¢ → 43¢
-28% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $90 | $75 | -$15 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Overavg 39.8¢ | $72.78 | $51.17 | -$21.6 | 64% 997-567 (1564) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Underavg 57.4¢ | $49.91 | $45.67 | -$4.24 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 72¢ | $41.04 | $41.04 | +$0 | 58% 28127-20735 (48862) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 57¢ | $21.57 | $27.24 | +$5.68 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $29.68 | $20.72 | -$8.96 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $4.26 | $4.26 | -$0 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 47.9¢ | $1.09 | $1.08 | -$0.01 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$90
Value
$75
PnL
-$15
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
Invested
$72.78
Value
$51.17
PnL
-$21.6
Record
64%
997-567 (1564)
Invested
$49.91
Value
$45.67
PnL
-$4.24
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$41.04
Value
$41.04
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
28127-20735 (48862)
Invested
$21.57
Value
$27.24
PnL
+$5.68
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$29.68
Value
$20.72
PnL
-$8.96
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.26
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$1.08
PnL
-$0.01
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.