Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 3 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will St Johnstone FC win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 4.5¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
9
Yes 33%
$1.7K
-$84.1
41.1¢ → 4.5¢
-89% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 9 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $841.17 | $929.72 | +$88.54 | 48% 129-138 (267) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 61.7¢ | $261.26 | $245.55 | -$15.7 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 68.9¢ | $255.33 | $229.94 | -$25.39 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
FO fooooolCTR | Yesavg 58.2¢ | $256.98 | $149.32 | -$107.66 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $64.5 | $94.5 | +$30 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $85.5 | $31.5 | -$54 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $27.28 | $29.7 | +$2.42 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $16.38 | $15.58 | -$0.81 | 53% 15742-13912 (29654) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $6.5 | $5 | -$1.5 | 54% 6053-5127 (11180) |
Invested
$841.17
Value
$929.72
PnL
+$88.54
Record
48%
129-138 (267)
VeryLucky888Invested
$261.26
Value
$245.55
PnL
-$15.7
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$255.33
Value
$229.94
PnL
-$25.39
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$256.98
Value
$149.32
PnL
-$107.66
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
RN1<$100Invested
$64.5
Value
$94.5
PnL
+$30
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$85.5
Value
$31.5
PnL
-$54
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$27.28
Value
$29.7
PnL
+$2.42
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
Invested
$16.38
Value
$15.58
PnL
-$0.81
Record
53%
15742-13912 (29654)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
54%
6053-5127 (11180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.