St Johnstone FC leading at halftime?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $830 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$830.02
$0.44
80.1¢ → 100¢
+25% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 82.2¢ | $477.11 | $493.25 | +$16.14 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
0X 0xcba9371dcbbd7a48b477f04274376e1feea9f812CTR | Yesavg 31.7¢ | $200 | $217.55 | +$17.55 | 25% 91-273 (364) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 68.4¢ | $72.74 | $69.64 | -$3.09 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $29.7 | $49.5 | +$19.8 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 78¢ | $49.99 | $0.03 | -$49.96 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$477.11
Value
$493.25
PnL
+$16.14
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$200
Value
$217.55
PnL
+$17.55
Record
25%
91-273 (364)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$72.74
Value
$69.64
PnL
-$3.09
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$29.7
Value
$49.5
PnL
+$19.8
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$49.99
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$49.96
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.