Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
St Johnstone FC vs. Motherwell FC: Both Teams to Score
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 50%
$1.4K
$68.24
38.4¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO NotradecopyCTR | Noavg 39¢ | $475 | $548.07 | +$24.36 | 49% 3896-4091 (7987) |
FO foooool | Yesavg 58.6¢ | $260.28 | $321.94 | +$61.66 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
GA GamblingAddict12345CTR | Noavg 39¢ | $132.24 | $152.58 | +$6.78 | 51% 3894-3815 (7709) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 41¢ | $123 | $132.8 | +$0 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
 RN1 | Yesavg 73¢ | $105.85 | $128.33 | +$22.47 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
RO Rocky31<$100 | Yesavg 95¢ | $95 | $88.5 | -$6.5 | 73% 1485-544 (2029) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $6.44 | $6.33 | -$0.12 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $40.5 | $0.08 | -$40.43 | 60% 9402-6388 (15790) |
Invested
$475
Value
$548.07
PnL
+$24.36
Record
49%
3896-4091 (7987)
Invested
$260.28
Value
$321.94
PnL
+$61.66
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Invested
$132.24
Value
$152.58
PnL
+$6.78
Record
51%
3894-3815 (7709)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$123
Value
$132.8
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
RN1Invested
$105.85
Value
$128.33
PnL
+$22.47
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$95
Value
$88.5
PnL
-$6.5
Record
73%
1485-544 (2029)
Invested
$6.44
Value
$6.33
PnL
-$0.12
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$40.5
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$40.43
Record
60%
9402-6388 (15790)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.