Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 3.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 43¢ · $188 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$187.8
$6.44
Research grade
NeutralOver at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO fooooolARB<$100 | Underavg 60.4¢ | $93.18 | $85.95 | -$7.24 | 50% 10545-10397 (20942) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 60.4¢ | $68.34 | $61.11 | -$7.24 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 46¢ | $24.84 | $24.84 | +$0 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $39.77 | $38.77 | -$1 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 32¢ | $16.96 | $24.71 | +$7.75 | 50% 12135-12341 (24476) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 54.1¢ | $19.06 | $19.04 | -$0.02 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
 RN1<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $10.71 | $10.91 | +$0.2 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $5.51 | $5.37 | -$0.14 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $3.4 | $3.05 | -$0.35 | 76% 3927-1248 (5175) |
Invested
$93.18
Value
$85.95
PnL
-$7.24
Record
50%
10545-10397 (20942)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.77
Value
$38.77
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
Invested
$16.96
Value
$24.71
PnL
+$7.75
Record
50%
12135-12341 (24476)
Invested
$19.06
Value
$19.04
PnL
-$0.02
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
RN1<$100Invested
$10.71
Value
$10.91
PnL
+$0.2
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Invested
$5.51
Value
$5.37
PnL
-$0.14
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$3.05
PnL
-$0.35
Record
76%
3927-1248 (5175)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.