Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Rangers FC: O/U 2.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 78¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Over78¢Under22¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$3.99

Smart Money Entry

67.1¢ → 77.5¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over78%

Under23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,982

Combined PnL+$173.6

Under4 traders

Total Value$454.23

Total Shares2,003

Combined PnL-$177.59

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Overavg 60.9¢	$866.78	$1.0K	+$165.24	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
RN1	Overavg 78¢	$568.62	$572.27	+$3.64	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 31.1¢	$585.71	$404.66	-$181.05	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Underavg 43.9¢	$150.53	$147.27	-$3.26	50% 10545-10397 (20942)
└ Under leg	Underavg 43.9¢	$100.76	$109.11	+$8.35
└ Over leg	Overavg 68.5¢	$49.77	$38.16	-$11.61
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$91.26	$40	+$1.65	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Overavg 55¢	$12.99	$17.48	+$4.49	47% 4451-4924 (9375)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Overavg 57¢	$9.12	$9.6	+$0.48	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
RO Rocky31<$100	Overavg 53¢	$5.3	$5.05	-$0.25	73% 1485-544 (2029)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$2.99	$4.85	+$1.87	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$4.77	$4.72	-$0.05	53% 3098-2756 (5854)

UpTheBlues

Over

Invested

$866.78

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$165.24

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

RN1

Over

Invested

$568.62

Value

$572.27

PnL

+$3.64

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$585.71

Value

$404.66

PnL

-$181.05

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

fooooolARB<$100

Under

Invested

$150.53

Value

$147.27

PnL

-$3.26

Record

50%

10545-10397 (20942)

Both legs:

Under$100.7643.9¢+$8.35

Over$49.7768.5¢-$11.61

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$91.26

Value

$40

PnL

+$1.65

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Over

Invested

$12.99

Value

$17.48

PnL

+$4.49

Record

47%

4451-4924 (9375)

LuckyLoo<$100

Over

Invested

$9.12

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.48

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

Rocky31<$100

Over

Invested

$5.3

Value

$5.05

PnL

-$0.25

Record

73%

1485-544 (2029)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.99

Value

$4.85

PnL

+$1.87

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.77

Value

$4.72

PnL

-$0.05

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 78%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 9 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.3%

77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.03

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.