Will Heart of Midlothian FC win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$1.4K
-$292.1
74.9¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA Cannae | Noavg 74.9¢ | $1.6K | $1.3K | -$289.98 | 53% 15741-13910 (29651) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $38 | $37.75 | -$0.25 | 59% 44606-31003 (75609) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $22.5 | $22.65 | +$0.15 | 58% 40752-29469 (70221) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $11.25 | $9.23 | -$2.03 | 63% 1075-624 (1699) |
Invested
$1,619.91
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$289.98
Record
53%
15741-13910 (29651)
Invested
$38
Value
$37.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
59%
44606-31003 (75609)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$22.5
Value
$22.65
PnL
+$0.15
Record
58%
40752-29469 (70221)
Invested
$11.25
Value
$9.23
PnL
-$2.03
Record
63%
1075-624 (1699)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.