Falkirk FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 94¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 1

Over6¢Under94¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$-1.7K

Smart Money Entry

61.1¢ → 94¢

+54% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over6%

Under94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares9,897

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Over4 traders

Total Value$922.93

Total Shares3,038

Combined PnL-$225.23

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 68.3¢	$2.9K	$2.8K	-$63.91	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Underavg 58¢	$3.9K	$2.5K	$-1.4K	49% 167-174 (341)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 34.9¢	$1.6K	$1.1K	-$520.99	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.9¢	$1.4K	$835.02	-$587.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.6¢	$165.55	$232.55	+$67
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 39.6¢	$1.4K	$1.0K	-$332.46	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
└ Under leg	Underavg 73.7¢	$577.1	$622.87	+$45.77
└ Over leg	Overavg 39.6¢	$783.51	$405.27	-$378.23
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 33.9¢	$808.93	$799.48	-$9.45	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$33.39	$54.86	+$19.88	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 41.5¢	$24.96	$37.87	+$12.92	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
FO foooool<$100	Underavg 38.6¢	$21.53	$35.95	+$14.42	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 54.5¢	$279.29	$30.72	-$248.57	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
CC ccllar<$100	Underavg 40¢	$7.38	$7.01	-$0.37	46% 456-526 (982)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$2,890.79

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$63.91

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

1l2ihj34li12u34

Under

Invested

$3,928.61

Value

$2.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,588.56

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$520.99

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Both legs:

Over$1,423.0134.9¢-$587.99

Under$165.5556.6¢+$67

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,360.61

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$332.46

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

Both legs:

Under$577.173.7¢+$45.77

Over$783.5139.6¢-$378.23

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$808.93

Value

$799.48

PnL

-$9.45

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$33.39

Value

$54.86

PnL

+$19.88

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$24.96

Value

$37.87

PnL

+$12.92

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

foooool<$100

Under

Invested

$21.53

Value

$35.95

PnL

+$14.42

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$279.29

Value

$30.72

PnL

-$248.57

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

ccllar<$100

Under

Invested

$7.38

Value

$7.01

PnL

-$0.37

Record

46%

456-526 (982)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.