Falkirk FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 1.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$1.1K
$48.59
90.7¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU LuckyLoo | Overavg 92.5¢ | $670.07 | $723.68 | +$53.61 | 49% 13013-13570 (26583) |
 Socialista | Overavg 85¢ | $254.96 | $299.66 | +$1.5 | 63% 2723-1610 (4333) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $42.74 | $42.74 | +$0 | 53% 5610-5034 (10644) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 14¢ | $14.35 | $7.68 | -$6.68 | 58% 42674-31054 (73728) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 93.2¢ | $2.19 | $2.35 | +$0.16 | 54% 57146-49404 (106550) |
Invested
$670.07
Value
$723.68
PnL
+$53.61
Record
49%
13013-13570 (26583)
SocialistaInvested
$254.96
Value
$299.66
PnL
+$1.5
Record
63%
2723-1610 (4333)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$42.74
Value
$42.74
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5610-5034 (10644)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$14.35
Value
$7.68
PnL
-$6.68
Record
58%
42674-31054 (73728)
RN1<$100Invested
$2.19
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.16
Record
54%
57146-49404 (106550)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.