Spread: Falkirk FC (-1.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Falkirk FC (50%) · Falkirk FC at 97¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 1

Falkirk FC97¢Celtic FC3¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Falkirk FC

Consensus Traders

Falkirk FC 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$218.9

Smart Money Entry

76.7¢ → 97.3¢

+27% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralFalkirk FC at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Falkirk FC

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Falkirk FC97%

Celtic FC3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Falkirk FC2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,499

Combined PnL+$342.1

Celtic FC2 traders

Total Value$31.04

Total Shares1,150

Combined PnL-$123.2

Falkirk FC — 50%Celtic FC — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Falkirk FCavg 86.6¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$164.73	59% 46920-33175 (80095)
LU LuckyLoo	Falkirk FCavg 29.1¢	$75.76	$253.13	+$177.37	49% 13022-13588 (26610)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Celtic FCavg 13.3¢	$134.72	$27.25	-$107.47	48% 8966-9597 (18563)
poshposhCTR<$100	Celtic FCavg 13.9¢	$19.51	$3.79	-$15.72	58% 10670-7656 (18326)

UpTheBlues

Falkirk FC

Invested

$1,073.11

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$164.73

Record

59%

46920-33175 (80095)

LuckyLoo

Falkirk FC

Invested

$75.76

Value

$253.13

PnL

+$177.37

Record

49%

13022-13588 (26610)

topdogbigboiCTR

Celtic FC

Invested

$134.72

Value

$27.25

PnL

-$107.47

Record

48%

8966-9597 (18563)

poshposhCTR<$100

Celtic FC

Invested

$19.51

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$15.72

Record

58%

10670-7656 (18326)

Research grade

NeutralFalkirk FC at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Falkirk FC

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Falkirk FC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.4%

97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.