Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Falkirk FC (67%) · Falkirk FC at 100¢ · $785 held · ended Nov 1
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Neutral
Falkirk FC
3
Falkirk FC 67%
$784.73
$275.04
64¢ → 99.9¢
+56% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralFalkirk FC at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Falkirk FCavg 64.1¢ | $488.06 | $760.74 | +$273.06 | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Celtic FCavg 43¢ | $19.5 | $20 | +$0.5 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Falkirk FCavg 57¢ | $2.28 | $4 | +$1.48 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.