Will Falkirk FC win on 2026-11-01?

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 95¢ · $21K held · ended Nov 1

Yes95¢No5¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.9K

Combined PnL

$5.2K

Smart Money Entry

57.4¢ → 94.5¢

+65% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 14 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$19.4K

Total Shares21,897

Combined PnL+$6.0K

No6 traders

Total Value$462.57

Total Shares6,329

Combined PnL-$748.36

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 79.7¢	$7.6K	$8.5K	+$901.92	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 58.3¢	$4.8K	$7.6K	+$2.8K	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
KY Kyn008	Yesavg 13¢	$521.49	$2.5K	+$2.0K	49% 257-266 (523)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 19.1¢	$2.3K	$735.61	$-1.6K	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
└ No leg	Noavg 19.1¢	$2.2K	$525.17	$-1.7K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 43.7¢	$96.34	$210.44	+$114.1
FO foooool	Yesavg 37.9¢	$230.87	$407.36	+$176.49	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
AP apprentice15CTR	Noavg 10¢	$400.42	$220.57	-$179.84	42% 476-645 (1121)
CA Cannae	Yesavg 14¢	$47.02	$204.86	-$1.68	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Noavg 26.4¢	$164.5	$172.36	+$7.86	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
└ No leg	Noavg 26.4¢	$84.63	$86.69	+$2.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 68.1¢	$79.87	$85.67	+$5.8
RO Rocky31	Yesavg 38.6¢	$71.4	$158.17	+$75.68	74% 1680-593 (2273)
SH SharkVisionARB<$100	Yesavg 54.3¢	$92.81	$91.68	-$1.13	71% 1381-572 (1953)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 54.3¢	$49.81	$56.84	+$7.03
└ No leg	Noavg 46.9¢	$43	$34.84	-$8.16
0010001000001100CTR	Noavg 33.3¢	$2.4K	$82.05	-$501.4	65% 1369-739 (2108)
tradecraftARB<$100	Noavg 19.9¢	$120.53	$71.67	-$57.94	51% 6075-5796 (11871)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 14¢	$5.92	$39.93	+$24.93
└ No leg	Noavg 19.9¢	$114.61	$31.74	-$82.87
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$85.4	$71.26	-$14.14	50% 19439-19808 (39247)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 12.7¢	$101.7	$52.25	-$49.45	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 26¢	$25.94	$22.48	-$3.46	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 39.2¢	$14.03	$13.95	-$0.08	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$2.9	$6.2	+$3.3	51% 1526-1478 (3004)
BE Betziko<$100	Yesavg 26.5¢	$2.65	$6.2	+$3.55	54% 6424-5410 (11834)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$7,573.11

Value

$8.5K

PnL

+$901.92

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$4,778.7

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

Kyn008

Yes

Invested

$521.49

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$2.0K

Record

49%

257-266 (523)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$2,325.81

Value

$735.61

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

Both legs:

No$2,229.4819.1¢$-1.7K

Yes$96.3443.7¢+$114.1

foooool

Yes

Invested

$230.87

Value

$407.36

PnL

+$176.49

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

apprentice15CTR

Invested

$400.42

Value

$220.57

PnL

-$179.84

Record

42%

476-645 (1121)

Cannae

Yes

Invested

$47.02

Value

$204.86

PnL

-$1.68

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Invested

$164.5

Value

$172.36

PnL

+$7.86

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Both legs:

Invested

$71.4

Value

$158.17

PnL

+$75.68

Record

74%

1680-593 (2273)

SharkVisionARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.81

Value

$91.68

PnL

-$1.13

Record

71%

1381-572 (1953)

Both legs:

Yes$49.8154.3¢+$7.03

No$4346.9¢-$8.16

0010001000001100CTR

Invested

$2,427.78

Value

$82.05

PnL

-$501.4

Record

65%

1369-739 (2108)

tradecraftARB<$100

Invested

$120.53

Value

$71.67

PnL

-$57.94

Record

51%

6075-5796 (11871)

Both legs:

Yes$5.9214¢+$24.93

No$114.6119.9¢-$82.87

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Invested

$85.4

Value

$71.26

PnL

-$14.14

Record

50%

19439-19808 (39247)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$101.7

Value

$52.25

PnL

-$49.45

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$25.94

Value

$22.48

PnL

-$3.46

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$14.03

Value

$13.95

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.9

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$3.3

Record

51%

1526-1478 (3004)

Betziko<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.65

Value

$6.2

PnL

+$3.55

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 14 top traders (57%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.