Exact Score: Falkirk FC 2 - 0 Celtic FC?
1 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 97¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 33%
1 arb excluded
$3.5K
$2.6K
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 3 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 19.6¢ | $589.77 | $3.4K | +$2.8K | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LU LuckyLooARB<$100 | Noavg 86.5¢ | $1.5K | $98.05 | $-1.4K | 49% 13022-13588 (26610) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $2.42 | $53.56 | +$3.3 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 86.5¢ | $1.5K | $44.49 | $-1.4K | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Noavg 29.5¢ | $186.93 | $16.58 | -$170.35 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Noavg 37¢ | $2.32 | $0.16 | -$2.16 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
Invested
$589.77
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$2.8K
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$1,471.93
Value
$98.05
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
49%
13022-13588 (26610)
Both legs:
Invested
$186.93
Value
$16.58
PnL
-$170.35
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
Invested
$2.32
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$2.16
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.