Will Celtic FC win on 2026-11-01?

12 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 84¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 1

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 83.5¢

+80% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$8.4K

Total Shares10,477

Combined PnL+$3.4K

Yes5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares5,714

Combined PnL$-1.5K

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 41.1¢	$2.3K	$4.6K	+$2.3K	50% 25648-25477 (51125)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 56¢	$1.2K	$1.7K	+$565.47	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 50.3¢	$2.3K	$751.04	$-1.5K	54% 57146-49404 (106550)
SH SharkVision	Noavg 82.5¢	$431.3	$416.81	-$14.5	71% 1381-572 (1953)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 32.1¢	$266.14	$408.01	+$151.76	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
FO foooool	Noavg 55.7¢	$248.31	$371.89	+$123.59	50% 11176-10983 (22159)
RO Rocko33	Noavg 64.9¢	$172.36	$221.78	+$49.42	63% 1197-693 (1890)
SocialistaCTR	Yesavg 68¢	$209.87	$207.76	-$2.12	63% 2723-1610 (4333)
BE Betziko	Noavg 50.4¢	$90.41	$149.74	+$59.32	54% 6424-5410 (11834)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$231.16	$138.35	-$92.8	48% 8942-9563 (18505)
└ No leg	Noavg 44.7¢	$40.31	$75.38	+$35.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 50¢	$190.85	$62.98	-$127.87
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34	Noavg 32¢	$79.5	$126.7	+$47.2	49% 167-174 (341)
CA Cannae	Noavg 31.2¢	$64.27	$105.06	+$40.79	53% 16115-14278 (30393)
WE WeBuyHighWeSelllow	Noavg 32¢	$64	$102	+$38	54% 4942-4170 (9112)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.3¢	$87.6	$88.79	+$1.19	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 49¢	$82.5	$84.69	+$2.2	58% 10657-7637 (18294)
0010001000001100<$100	Noavg 83¢	$82.99	$83.49	+$0.5	65% 1369-739 (2108)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 55.6¢	$29.86	$44.85	+$14.99	53% 5610-5034 (10644)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$8	$8.25	+$0.25	50% 33839-33425 (67264)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,312.73

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

50%

25648-25477 (51125)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,184.25

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$565.47

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$2,290.25

Value

$751.04

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

57146-49404 (106550)

SharkVision

Invested

$431.3

Value

$416.81

PnL

-$14.5

Record

71%

1381-572 (1953)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$266.14

Value

$408.01

PnL

+$151.76

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

foooool

Invested

$248.31

Value

$371.89

PnL

+$123.59

Record

50%

11176-10983 (22159)

Rocko33

Invested

$172.36

Value

$221.78

PnL

+$49.42

Record

63%

1197-693 (1890)

SocialistaCTR

Yes

Invested

$209.87

Value

$207.76

PnL

-$2.12

Record

63%

2723-1610 (4333)

Betziko

Invested

$90.41

Value

$149.74

PnL

+$59.32

Record

54%

6424-5410 (11834)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$231.16

Value

$138.35

PnL

-$92.8

Record

48%

8942-9563 (18505)

Both legs:

No$40.3144.7¢+$35.06

Yes$190.8550¢-$127.87

1l2ihj34li12u34

Invested

$79.5

Value

$126.7

PnL

+$47.2

Record

49%

167-174 (341)

Cannae

Invested

$64.27

Value

$105.06

PnL

+$40.79

Record

53%

16115-14278 (30393)

WeBuyHighWeSelllow

Invested

$64

Value

$102

PnL

+$38

Record

54%

4942-4170 (9112)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$87.6

Value

$88.79

PnL

+$1.19

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.5

Value

$84.69

PnL

+$2.2

Record

58%

10657-7637 (18294)

0010001000001100<$100

Invested

$82.99

Value

$83.49

PnL

+$0.5

Record

65%

1369-739 (2108)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$29.86

Value

$44.85

PnL

+$14.99

Record

53%

5610-5034 (10644)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.25

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 84%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

73% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.